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April 2020 – Monthly Statistical Update for California Real Estate

April 2020 – Monthly Statistical Update for California

Recession anticipation send rates down, refinances up
+ A negative yield spread forecasts a 2020 recession while FRM rates hit record lows.
+ Fixed Rate Mortgage rates hit record lows
+ Refinances to continue their rise

Posted on April 2, 2020 at 12:04 AM
Carlos Camargo | Category: N.A.R. - C.A.R. Update, Newsletter-CFC, Real Estate Market Update

Housing Perspective: COVID-19 Market Impact | March 2020

📭 Carlos.Camargo@BHGhome.com
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🦸‍♂️ #REALTOR® #01988431
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Posted on March 31, 2020 at 10:12 PM
Carlos Camargo | Category: N.A.R. - C.A.R. Update, Newsletter-CFC, Real Estate Market Update

C.A.R. Update on Coronavirus Impacts on California’s Housing Market | 4 March 2020

Coronavirus Impacts on California’s Housing Market

https://www.car.org/knowledge/pubs/newsletters/newsline/coronavirus

The rapid growth of COVID-19 (“Coronavirus”) cases continues to create turbulence in the global economy and in domestic financial markets. However, C.A.R. is not revising its current 2020 housing market forecast, but will continue to monitor the market for negative macroeconomic impacts on the demand for housing as well as the supply chain impacts that could adversely affect the cost of new home construction in the coming months and quarters. C.A.R. has created a list of the Top 10 potential impacts that could elicit questions from buyers and sellers over the near term.

 


  1. Forecasts Have Been Downgraded, But Few Economists are Calling for Recession Yet: Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth by 0.1%, but is still calling for an expansion in 2020, albeit at a slower pace. Similar orders of magnitude have been forecast for the domestic economy, with groups like Wells Fargo and others expecting GDP to grow by 10-20 basis points slower than their pre-Coronavirus forecast. Growth is expected to be slower, but the economy is still expected to grow.


  2. Mortgage Rates Will Likely Remain Low, Or Even Fall Further As A Result of Coronavirus: The Federal Reserve issued an emergency 50 basis point cut to their target interest rates, and guidance suggests that the Fed may be open to future reductions in order to counteract the negative impacts to financial markets. This should help to reduce the cost of borrowing and make housing more affordable over the near term, which should help to offset some of the negative impacts to housing demand associated with rising uncertainty.

  3. Domestic Buyers May Be Discouraged By Rising Uncertainty and Recession Risk, But Is It Still a Good Time to Buy?: This week, mortgage rates fell to an all-time low level of just 3.13%. That is down from 3.80% at the start of the year and represents significant cost savings over the life of a 30-year loan. For buyers who can afford their monthly payments, the economic uncertainty that is driving rates lower provides an opportunity to capitalize on significantly reduced borrowing costs that they will enjoy for years to come. Short-run risks to the economy exist but are arguably offset by long-run benefits of lower rates at the individual level.

  4. Financial Market Volatility Could Reduce Demand For Luxury Homes, But Also Create Potential Opportunities for Luxury Home Buyers: The recent turbulence in financial markets has already impacted household wealth. This could reduce demand for luxury homes in California in particular. However, with less luxury buyers, there could be opportunities for price discounts for buyers who choose to remain in the market for high-end properties. Real estate may also act as a buffer against potentially larger declines in the financial markets.

  5. Demand From Foreign Home Buyers Could Be Curtailed Over the Near Term: Reduced economic growth in China, specifically, could stifle demand for California real estate this year. However, foreign buyers represented just 3.9% of California’s home sales last year, so the impacts statewide will be muted compared to 6 years ago, when foreign buyers represented 8.0% of the market. In addition, because domestic buyers typically finance their homes in much larger proportions to their foreign counterparts, low rates could stimulate more domestic demand that would help to offset the impact to foreign buyer demand.

  6. Foreign Home Sellers May Face Closing Delays: Because the Embassy and many consulates are closed or may have limited hours in China, and elsewhere, there may be difficulty in providing a properly notarized deed to the property that escrow will accept and title will insure.Advise sellers to make efforts to obtain the deed early in the transaction. If sellers are currently in the U.S., make efforts to comply before returning to their foreign home country. If contract has not been accepted, foreign sellers might want to consider a contingency allowing a seller to cancel if they are unable to obtain notarized deed.

  7. New Home Construction in California Could Slow Further, Exacerbating Already-Tight Supply: Many of the inputs to California’s Building Industry are sourced from Asian countries including China. As the Coronavirus disrupts these supply chains, the cost of those materials may increase over the short run or become limited, which will increase the cost of construction and potentially reduce the pace of new residential development below its already-lackluster pace in 2020.


  8. Low Rates and Fewer New Homes Constructed Should Place Upward Pressure on Home Prices: Improved affordability stemming from lower rates combined with fewer new homes being constructed as the construction supply chain is impacted could lead to more upward pressure on home prices in California. Unsold inventory is already at low levels, and reduced construction activity means that is likely to continue—especially if buyers respond to lower rates.

  9. Offsetting Effects Leave C.A.R.’s Housing Market Outlook Unchanged, For Now: The situation remains fluid, and conditions could deteriorate beyond what is currently envisioned depending on the severity and duration of the outbreak, but if current economic forecasts of modest declines in GDP growth are realized, the effects of lower rates should help to offset the effects of a slower economy and increased economic uncertainty such that California would still achieve a modest improvement in both home sales and prices this year.

  10. Eventual Rebound Will Take Longer Than It Did With SARS in 2000: At the turn of the century, the negative impact of the SARS virus began to fade within 6 months of the outbreak coming under control. However, unlike with the Coronavirus, SARS did not have significant impacts on either consumer spending or domestic financial markets. The size of the impacted population and the death toll is also much larger with Coronavirus, which suggests that the eventual recovery will play out over a longer period of time.



It’s clear that the Coronavirus will have an impact on the economy and the housing market in 2020, but it is also clear that it is not time to panic. The effect of lower rates will help to offset some of the headwinds in the housing market, and forecasts of economic growth by C.A.R. and others have been revised down, but only by 10s of basis points—not hundreds. The situation remains fluid and the California Association of REALTORS® will be monitoring this situation closely and providing updates as information comes to the fore.

 

Posted on March 5, 2020 at 4:12 AM
Carlos Camargo | Category: N.A.R. - C.A.R. Update, Real Estate Market Update

California R.E. Monthly Statistical Update (March 2020)

Slowing sales and unmet housing demand | carlosfcamargo.net

+ California home sales volume down slightly in 2019;

+ Home prices level off going into 2020; &

+ Construction declines in 2019, despite rising demand

Let’s conquer East Bay Real Estate Together!

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Posted on March 4, 2020 at 7:53 PM
Carlos Camargo | Category: N.A.R. - C.A.R. Update, Newsletter-CFC, Real Estate Market Update

H o u s i n g P e r s p e c t i v e | January 2020

Housing Market Outlook – Slight Improvement in 2020

Despite having a double-digit decline in the first half of the year, California home sales only dipped slightly in 2019 as low interest rates boosted the market in the last six months of the year. With the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) dipping more than 100 basis points from the prior year for three consecutive months at the year-end, buyers became more motivated to get back in the market and lifted sales up.
December sales were up strong from 2018 with a jump of 7.4 percent, the largest increase since November 2016. For the year as a whole, there were 397,910 existing single-family homes sold in California in 2019, a drop of 1.2 percent from 402,640 units in 2018.
 
LET’S CONQUER EAST BAY REAL ESTATE TOGETHER!
📭Carlos.Camargo@BHGhome.com | ☎️ (510) 798-5016
🏠 #BHGReliancePartners | 🦸‍♂️ #REALTOR® #01988431
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Posted on January 30, 2020 at 5:30 PM
Carlos Camargo | Category: Buying a House, Credit & Home Finance, N.A.R. - C.A.R. Update, Newsletter-CFC, Real Estate Market Update

The Real Estate Advisor: January 2020

Did you know plants clean the air? Three good-sized plants will work wonders for an average living room.

Some projects get bigger bang for buck – Remodeling master bathrooms and kitchens may preoccupy home sellers, but they aren’t necessarily where owners can recoup most of their money. Sellers recover, on average, about 60% of their kitchen and bathroom renovation costs, according to the 2019 Remodeling Impact Report from the NAR and the National Association of the Remodeling Industry. “You’ll never get dollar for dollar out of the renovation,” Baisden says. For sellers on a tighter budget, Baisden advises starting with projects such as painting and flooring. Set a budget of about $2,000 for the painting and $4,000 for flooring. Another worthwhile project is decluttering. If painting the whole house isn’t an option, prioritize painting the front door where buyers walk in and parts of the house that are in high-traffic zones, including hallways, entryways and kitchens, he says. Don’t overlook outside work. Sellers can recover about three times the cost of $300 spent on a lawn and seeding service, says Lautz, who stresses the strong selling points of a well-maintained lawn. “It’s really curb appeal at the end of the day.”

📅 PLAN TO BUY OR SELL A 🏠HOME THIS YEAR?

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Posted on January 12, 2020 at 5:54 PM
Carlos Camargo | Category: Home Care & Maintenance, Investment Property, N.A.R. - C.A.R. Update, Newsletter-CFC, Real Estate Market Update

Monthly Real Estate Statistical Update (January 2020)

Residential construction strains to meet population growth

  • California #construction still insufficient;

  • First-time homebuyer population grows, #homeownership slows;

  • California’s population growing at a slowing pace

🔹 Looking to buy or sell a home in 2020? I can help!
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Posted on January 8, 2020 at 8:13 PM
Carlos Camargo | Category: N.A.R. - C.A.R. Update, Newsletter-CFC, Real Estate Market Update

🔮SMARTmoves | JANUARY 2020 | VOLUME 4 | ISSUE 1

🔮SMARTmoves | JANUARY 2020 | VOLUME 4 | ISSUE 1

▪️January is National Radon Action Month
▪️Homeowner Tip: Cut Your Energy Costs Day is 1/10
▪️Appliance Maintenance Resolutions for 2020
▪️One-Pot Zucchini Mushroom Pasta
🔹 Looking to buy or sell a home in 2020. I can help!
carlosfcamargo.net 🔎 🏡 🔍
 
🔸 Want to know how much your home is worth? Find out now!
carlosfcamargo.com 💲 🏠 💲
🦸‍♂️Carlos F. Camargo, Ph.D., REALTOR® #01988431 🦸‍♂️
 
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Posted on January 1, 2020 at 7:27 PM
Carlos Camargo | Category: Home Care & Maintenance, N.A.R. - C.A.R. Update, Newsletter-CFC, Real Estate Market Update

Monthly Real Estate Statistical Update (October 2019)

Monthly Real Estate Statistical Update (October 2019)
+ California homes sales volume to continue down
+ The yield spread forecasts the next recession
+ Active agents & brokers decline

Posted on September 30, 2019 at 11:10 PM
Carlos Camargo | Category: N.A.R. - C.A.R. Update, Newsletter-CFC, Real Estate Market Update

Statewide Rent Control and Just Cause Eviction Bill Approved by the California Legislature

Statewide Rent Control and Just Cause Eviction Bill Approved by the California Legislature
The California Legislature recently approved Assembly Bill 1482 — a statewide rent control and just cause eviction bill. Although not yet law, Governor Newsome is expected to sign the bill. Some of its major provisions include:
  • Rent Cap. A cap on annual rent increases set at 5% plus inflation, up to a maximum of 10% per year.This cap applies retroactively to all rent increases since March 15, 2019.Any rent increases initiated on or after that date will count toward the rent cap, and if over the maximum, will have to be rolled back effective January 1, 2020.
  • Just Cause. A prohibition on evictions without “just cause.”Landlords can no longer terminate month-to-month tenancies at will and may now only evict tenants for one of 15 specific reasons. The permissible reasons are divided into two categories: “at fault” and “no fault.”
    • “At fault” termination is generally allowed when tenants have breached their lease and does not require the payment of relocation assistance. “At fault” reasons include non-payment of rent, nuisance, criminal activity, refusal to allow entry, and breach of a material term of the lease.
    • “No fault” termination is allowed even when the tenant has not breached the lease and will require the landlord to pay one month’s rent in relocation assistance. “No fault” reasons include an owner or family member intending to occupy the property, withdrawal from the rental market, substantial remodeling and compliance with a government order to vacate the property,
  • Exemptions. The bill’s just cause eviction provisions only protect tenants who have been in possession for a year or more.  Certain types of housing are exempt including:
  • Single family homes and condos if:
    • Tenants have received notice of the exemption and,
    • The owner is not a REIT, corporation, or LLC owned wholly or in part by a corporation
  • Homes built within the last 15 years
  • Owner-occupied duplexes
  • Owner-occupied single-family homes where two or fewer rooms are rented out (exempt from just cause but not rent cap)
  • Government assisted housing

Posted on September 20, 2019 at 3:32 PM
Carlos Camargo | Category: Fair Housing, Investment Property, N.A.R. - C.A.R. Update, Real Estate Market Update